is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Still Relevant?
As Bitcoin gains traction among financial institutions, corporations, and governments, some market watchers question the relevance of its four-year cycle model. Let’s explore this cycle and why doubts are emerging.
An X account, Bitcoin Archive, polled users on the cycle’s relevance. over 10,000 votes in ten hours showed 52% believing the cycle is over. This doesn’t mean the cycle is irrelevant, but it suggests a changing landscape.
Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, designed a mechanism called ‘halving.’ Every four years, the mining reward halves, reducing new coin inflow. This increases mining costs, pushing miners to sell at higher prices for profitability. The halving affects supply and demand, driving the four-year price cycle. After each halving, the BTC price typically rises within 12-18 months, hitting new highs. A bull market usually follows, succeeded by a bear market. However, recent trends challenge this pattern.
Halving cuts mining rewards, shrinking new coin supply and boosting prices. Historically, this lead to predictable price movements. But recent years show deviations.In 2021, growth was just 57%, unlike the usual 1000% growth is no longer the norm.
Despite this, the four-year cycle has shown signs of life. In 2025, Bitcoin hit a new high of $108,786. However, the market’s shakiness raises questions.Syncracy Capital’s Ryan Watkins believes the cycle is dead,citing Bitcoin ETFs and institutional involvement as game-changers.
Watkins argues Bitcoin
