The chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have narrowed after Galaxy Digital reduced its approval odds to 50%, even as Senate Republicans continue pushing for a vote when lawmakers return from recess. Summary Galaxy Digital has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50% despite ongoing Senate negotiations. Senator Tim Scott has backed a July Senate vote while lawmakers continue working to resolve key policy differences. Negotiators are still discussing ethics rules, anti-money laundering measures, and digital asset market oversight before the Senate returns. According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, congressional staff, White House officials, and crypto industry representatives have continued negotiating behind closed doors while the U.S. Senate remains in recess until July 13. Their discussions are focused on resolving differences between separate versions of the crypto market structure bill produced by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees before senators reconvene. The negotiations are centered on several unresolved issues, including ethics requirements, anti-money laundering provisions, and the framework for regulating digital asset markets. Reaching agreement on those points is considered necessary before the legislation can move toward a Senate floor vote. July timeline faces procedural hurdles Even if negotiators finalize the bill before lawmakers return, the Senate calendar could delay its progress. Terrett reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the National Defense Authorization Act will take priority once the Senate resumes work in mid-July. As a result, consideration of the CLARITY Act could slip to the latter half of July or even the opening week of August. The timing has become increasingly important because many observers believe the legislation needs Senate approval before Congress leaves for its August recess. Missing that legislative window could make it substantially harder for the bill to advance before the end of the 2026 congressional session. Passing the measure will also require bipartisan support. The legislation needs at least 60 votes in the Senate, while Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Full Republican backing is not guaranteed, as Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul opposed the earlier GENIUS Act, making Democratic support important for the CLARITY Act as well. Republican support remains intact despite lower approval odds Although negotiations remain unfinished, senior Republicans have continued encouraging a July vote. In a recent post on X, Senator Tim Scott endorsed Majority Leader John Thune’s proposed timeline for bringing crypto market structure legislation before the Senate. Scott said the bipartisan proposal would provide clearer regulatory rules for digital assets, strengthen consumer protections, and help keep innovation in the United States. He also urged lawmakers to move the legislation forward for the benefit of Americans. While Republican leaders continue pressing ahead, market expectations have become more cautious. Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to 50%, highlighting the political and procedural challenges that still remain before the legislation can clear the Senate. The next two weeks are expected to play a decisive role as negotiators work to settle outstanding policy differences before senators return to Washington. Whether those talks produce a compromise could determine if the CLARITY Act reaches the Senate floor in July or loses momentum ahead of Congress’s summer recess.
