Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said at XRP Las Vegas on April 30 that if the CLARITY Act does not clear the Senate Banking Committee before the Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill could be shelved until 2030, as the current tri-branch alignment between the House, Senate, and White House on crypto legislation is uniquely fragile. Summary The bill has over 120 firm backers including Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, and Andreessen Horowitz and holds public support from the White House, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno have both said independently that failure to pass the CLARITY Act in 2026 means the next window opens no earlier than 2030. The CLARITY Act must still clear a Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation between Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the July 2025 House text, and Trump’s signature. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse framed May 21 as a hard ceiling at XRP Las Vegas, warning that the political conditions enabling the CLARITY Act are rare in Washington and may not survive a midterm election realignment. The 247 Wall St. analysis notes that XRP has spent most of 2026 waiting on this single catalyst, and that failure before May 21 effectively removes the largest institutional adoption driver for the year. Senator Tillis confirmed he will ask Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to schedule a markup when the Senate returns May 11. As crypto.news reported, the April markup deadline was missed because the Kevin Warsh confirmation consumed the Banking Committee’s calendar throughout April, and the committee broke for its weeklong recess before any markup notice was posted. That delay compresses the remaining window to roughly eight working days between May 11 and May 21. The five steps that must happen in sequence include a committee markup, a committee vote, a 60-vote Senate floor vote, reconciliation between the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, and a second reconciliation with the July 2025 House text. Each step takes days that the calendar no longer has to spare. As crypto.news documented, Senator Lummis made the political fragility argument explicitly at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference on April 27, saying the current simultaneous alignment of House, Senate, and White House on crypto legislation “is rare in Washington and may not last.” She chairs the Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets and is not seeking re-election, making her one of the few senators with no electoral incentive to delay. As crypto.news tracked, Novogratz said on a podcast this week the bill “probably gets done in May,” but Galaxy Research puts overall 2026 passage odds at 50-50 or lower and Polymarket prices it at approximately 46%.
