Canada’s monthly peer-to-peer crypto activity has fallen from a spring 2024 peak near 650,000 transactions alongside a decline in study permits, a pattern Chainalysis has linked to changes in the country’s international student population. Summary The study describes a population-level correlation, without establishing that international students caused the transaction decline. Government figures show 71% fewer new student arrivals in January–August 2026 than two years earlier. Payment providers report lower transfer costs, but local currency conversion remains a separate operational challenge. Philippine bank BPI has tested stablecoin settlement for overseas earnings paid into customers’ bank accounts. Chainalysis reported the relationship in its Oct. 14 North America study, comparing domestic crypto transfers with study permit data for people from India, China and the Philippines. Canada P2P crypto transactions tracked study permit trends The Chainalysis chart plots monthly domestic P2P transactions against study permit holders and permits issued for the three countries. Its transaction line reaches its highest point in spring 2024 before retreating, with activity later fluctuating around lower levels. The chart labels the permit-holder series as projected to 2025. Its transaction series runs into 2026, making the dates and scope of the population comparison part of the finding. Chainalysis said the two measures had moved together since mid-2021, through periods of growth and contraction. The firm described the connection as “associational, not causal.” Its proposed explanation centers on immigrants maintaining financial ties across borders and seeking less expensive ways to move money. The research does not establish which individual students used crypto or identify a replacement service for people who stopped making domestic P2P transfers. Official figures show fewer students arriving in Canada Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada recorded 65,240 new student arrivals between January and August 2026, down 71% from the same months in 2024. The department’s figures distinguish new arrivals from people already holding permits. Its arrivals measure excludes permit extensions and asylum claimants, while people issued both a study permit and a work permit in the same month fall into the student category. For the existing population, government data lists 602,115 study permit holders at the end of August 2026, compared with 1,032,950 in June 2024. Calculated from those figures, the total fell approximately 41.7%. The government’s population table covers students across countries of origin, while the Chainalysis chart focuses on three nationalities. IRCC said Canada introduced an annual study permit cap in 2024 and announced further reductions for 2025 and 2026. The department lists a target of 155,000 new student arrivals for 2026. Stablecoin transfer costs depend on the payment route Separate payment research has examined the cost of moving funds through stablecoin-funded services. On Oct. 16, crypto.news reported Borderless.xyz’s remittance cost comparison, which put its third-quarter 2026 median at 1%. The comparison used the World Bank’s 6.36% global average from the third quarter of 2025. Applied to a $200 payment, those rates produce costs of $2 and $12.72, respectively. The figures compare different reporting periods and a median with an average. Borderless’s observations do not establish the price a particular Canadian sender would receive. Its reported payout completion rates varied across destinations, from 73% for Costa Rica’s SINPE to 98.6% for Mexico’s SPEI. The figures concern the company’s payment sample. Borderless’s earlier second-quarter research tracked 260 corridors across 108 countries and 59 currencies. On the USDT-to-Brazilian-real route, the cheapest provider changed 34 times over 88 observation days, according to the same article. Local currency payouts require funding after tokens arrive Gravity Team CEO Mārtiņš Beņķītis described local currency settlement as a continuing constraint in an Aug. 24 interview. He said payment companies use stablecoins to fund a conversion, then release local currency to recipients. Each destination has its own banking hours, compliance checks, transaction limits, and available liquidity. Gravity Team estimated that correspondent banking can leave the equivalent of 20% to 40% of monthly payment flows in prefunded accounts. The company said stablecoins may reduce that idle capital when operators maintain funded local currency balances. Beņķītis cautioned that successful blockchain settlement does not complete every stage of a remittance. “Local conversion and payout still have to complete after the token arrives.” The company’s institutional desk supports currencies including the Philippine peso, Mexican peso and U.S. dollar. Its same-day fiat settlement offer remains subject to local banking conditions. BPI has tested stablecoins for overseas income payments In the Philippines, BPI’s stablecoin settlement pilot has targeted freelancers, virtual assistants and other recipients of overseas income, as reported on July 24. The bank worked with digital clearinghouse Meridian on a system that processes inbound international payments before converting funds into Philippine pesos for deposit into customers’ accounts. BPI President and CEO Jose Teodoro Limcaoco said the project sought faster access to overseas earnings and lower costs while retaining security standards. The initial program covered payroll and overseas earnings, with BPI planning to serve more customers before the ASEAN Summit in November. The bank said the pilot would proceed in coordination with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, with expansion dependent on regulatory safeguards covering consumer protection and transparency around stablecoin reserves.
