Bitcoin price prediction turns cautious on Thursday as BTC hovers near $74,921, with profit-taking slowing a ceasefire-driven rally that pulled in $597.5 million in spot ETF inflows over two days. Summary Bitcoin traded at $74,921 on Thursday morning, up 1.7% in 24 hours and 5.5% over the week, as the US-Iran ceasefire rally stalled on profit-taking near the $75,000 zone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $597.5 million in net inflows over the past two days, reflecting sustained institutional demand even as price momentum softened. IG analysts say a confirmed close above $76,100 is needed to signal bullish continuation, with $72,000 serving as the key support floor below. Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction points to consolidation Thursday as BTC drifts near $74,921, held up by institutional demand but capped by profit-taking after a sharp week of gains tied to the US-Iran ceasefire. BTC is up 1.7% over the past 24 hours and 5.5% for the week, but the rally is losing steam at familiar resistance. The S&P 500 set a record on Wednesday. Crypto did not follow at the same pace, underscoring a more cautious investor posture in digital assets relative to equities despite the improved geopolitical backdrop. Why BTC Cannot Break $76,000 The $76,000 level has now rejected price three times. IG analysts wrote Wednesday that “a technical breakout above roughly $76,100 would signal bullish continuation but failure maintains range-bound trading.” The setup has not changed materially: positive macro sentiment from ceasefire hopes is being offset by intermittent profit-taking from traders who bought earlier in the week. The SuperTrend indicator has flashed green on the daily chart and MACD lines crossed into positive territory, both pointing to underlying bullish structure. But BTC has failed to close above $75,000 on a sustained basis across multiple sessions. ETF Inflows Provide the Floor Twelve US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totalled $597.5 million across the past two sessions, per SoSoValue data. Short liquidations added $152 million in forced buying pressure over the same window, providing mechanical support to the rally even as spot demand from retail traders remains subdued. The combination keeps $72,000 as the structural floor. A break below that level would invalidate the current bullish thesis and expose BTC to a deeper correction, per the on-chart analysis. What Moves the Price From Here The path to $80,000 remains tied to geopolitics more than technicals. Trump told Fox News the Iran conflict is “close to over” and the White House said talks are “productive and ongoing.” Any confirmed ceasefire extension or positive development from resumed negotiations in Islamabad would likely trigger another ceasefire rally similar to last week’s 5% surge to $74,400. Absent that catalyst, BTC looks likely to continue ranging between $72,000 and $76,000 until diplomatic clarity arrives or the FOMC meeting on April 28 provides fresh macro direction.
