Bitcoin has traded just above $81,000 on Monday, extending its recovery from last week’s drop below $76,000 as regulatory developments, renewed ETF demand and upcoming U.S. macro events shape the next test for the market. Summary Bitcoin held above $81,000 after recovering from below $76,000 during last week’s volatile trading sessions. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed heavy midweek withdrawals with $592.5 million of combined inflows Thursday and Friday. Bitcoin’s RSI remains below overbought territory while MACD continues showing positive short-term momentum after recovery. U.S. flash PMI data and Federal Reserve speeches will shape rate expectations throughout the coming week. Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet Thursday as investors monitor trade, technology, and tariff discussions. Market data showed BTC rising less than 1% over 24 hours during Asian trading on Sept. 21. The price has held above $80,000 after reclaiming the level late last week, when buyers returned following two sessions of heavy selling. The recovery began as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission opened a regulatory route for qualifying tokenized U.S. stocks on Sept. 17. The SEC decision did not directly attribute any move in Bitcoin to the announcement, though the exemption coincided with improving sentiment across digital assets. The SEC said eligible tokenized securities venues can operate under temporary conditional relief while the agency considers longer-term rules. Bitcoin rebounds as regulatory sentiment improves Bitcoin fell below $76,000 during the middle of last week before recovering above $77,000 on Sept. 17 and then breaking through $80,000 around Sept. 18. The SEC’s Innovation Exemption arrived during that rebound. The framework gives qualifying venues five years of conditional relief to trade certain tokenized National Market System stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools. Token holders must receive the same legal and economic rights as owners of the underlying traditional shares. Issuers retain the ability to object to unaffiliated platforms tokenizing their securities, while smart contracts used by qualifying venues must remain publicly auditable. As crypto.news reported, the SEC order establishes a five-year pathway while maintaining limits on qualifying securities, venue operations and trading activity. Bitcoin’s latest move has followed that regulatory development, though price action has remained below the resistance area that stopped the market around $82,000 during the weekend. Bitcoin ETF demand returned after $746M of withdrawals Institutional fund flows produced another major swing for Bitcoin last week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $159.9 million in net inflows on Sept. 14 before investors withdrew $450.4 million on Sept. 15 and another $295.9 million the following day. Combined withdrawals across Sept. 15 and Sept. 16 reached roughly $746.3 million, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline toward the mid-$75,000 area. Demand returned later in the week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $159.5 million on Sept. 17 before inflows accelerated to around $433 million on Sept. 18. Fidelity’s FBTC led Friday’s rebound with $310.7 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT added $108.4 million. Across the full five trading sessions, the funds finished with approximately $6.2 million in net inflows. Source: SoSoValue Crypto.news reported that Bitcoin ETFs ended the week slightly positive while U.S. spot Ether funds recorded approximately $140.6 million of net withdrawals. The timing of the flows closely tracked Bitcoin’s volatile week, though ETF subscriptions and redemptions alone do not establish the cause of individual price moves. Bitcoin momentum stays positive below overbought territory Bitcoin’s current technical indicators show improving momentum without an overbought reading. The 14-period Relative Strength Index stands at 59.96, above its moving average of 57.35. The RSI remains below the 70 level, commonly used to identify overbought conditions. The reading places Bitcoin in neutral-to-bullish territory after the rebound from below $76,000. RSI holding above its own moving average shows momentum has strengthened during the recovery. MACD gives a similar signal. The MACD line sits near 193.33, while the signal line stands at approximately 143.26, producing a positive histogram close to 50.07. Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: TradingView A positive MACD histogram indicates short-term upward momentum remains intact, although BTC still faces resistance before the rally can extend materially. Bitcoin is now approaching the $81,700-$82,000 resistance zone, where selling pressure appeared during the weekend. A sustained move above the area would place the market beyond its latest local rejection. On the downside, $80,000 remains the first level to watch. Losing that psychological threshold could bring the $79,000 area back into play, while a deeper reversal would put the recent breakout structure under pressure. Fed speakers and PMI data could move Bitcoin this week Monetary policy remains one of Bitcoin’s main macro variables after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16. The Federal Open Market Committee approved the increase unanimously. In its policy statement, the Fed said economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. There is no rate decision scheduled this week, but several Fed officials are due to speak. Investors will monitor their comments for clues about whether September’s increase was an isolated move or part of a longer tightening sequence. Federal Reserve projections released with the September meeting indicated policymakers still see room for another increase during 2026, though future decisions remain dependent on incoming economic data. Wednesday brings an important data point. S&P Global is scheduled to publish preliminary September U.S. manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes at 9:45 a.m. ET on Sept. 23. August’s flash report showed manufacturing at 53.9 and services at 56.5, both above the 50 level separating expansion from contraction. Stronger September numbers could support expectations that the U.S. economy can tolerate tighter monetary policy. Weaker readings could revive debate about how far the Fed can continue raising rates. Trump-Xi meeting adds another market catalyst Thursday will turn attention toward U.S.-China relations as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet. Reuters reported that trade, tariffs, investment, export controls and technology restrictions are expected to feature in the discussions. Markets will be watching for either an extension of the current trade truce or renewed friction between the two governments. The existing tariff arrangement is due to expire in November, making Thursday’s meeting relevant for equities, currencies and other risk assets that have reacted to changes in U.S.-China trade policy. Ahead of the talks, Reuters reported that the Chinese yuan strengthened to its highest level against the dollar in more than three years, while the U.S. dollar index traded around 100.23. Crypto markets were broadly higher alongside Bitcoin on Monday. NEAR led major tokens with a roughly 23% gain to above $4, supported by increased activity through NEAR Intents and rising ZEC swap traffic. ZEC gained around 3% to above $1,500, while BNB, Ether and HYPE advanced close to 2%. XRP, DOGE, SOL and TRX posted gains of roughly 1% or less. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
