Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a possible bull market after a 24% rally lifted CryptoQuant’s Bull Score from 30 to 80 within one week. Summary Bitcoin’s Bull Score has reached 80, its highest reading since October 2025. Eight of the index’s 10 indicators are now sending bullish signals. CryptoQuant requires a weekly close above $83,000 to confirm a new bull market. Short-term whale profits and 53,000 BTC in exchange deposits raise pullback risks. Bitcoin Bull Score has reached a 10-month high CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 over the past week, reaching its highest level since October 2025 as spot and futures demand strengthened. Eight of the model’s 10 indicators now show bullish conditions. The index combines several measures of market demand, investor profitability, network activity, and liquidity to assess whether Bitcoin is trading in a favorable or unfavorable environment. A score of 80 places Bitcoin firmly inside the model’s bullish range, compared with 30 before the rally began. According to the analytics firm, the rapid increase indicates that several parts of the market improved together rather than price rising on one isolated signal. Bitcoin climbed more than 24% from below $64,000 and briefly moved above $80,000 during the advance. At the time of writing, CoinGecko data placed BTC near $79,000 after the cryptocurrency gave back part of its gains. The rally also carried Bitcoin to its highest price in about three months. On Aug. 25, crypto.news reported on the breakout, including the role of U.S. exchange-traded fund demand and forced buying from traders closing short positions. Despite the Bull Score reading, CryptoQuant has not treated the move above $80,000 as final confirmation of a new bull cycle. Its model requires Bitcoin to record a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, which currently sits near $83,000. Why Bitcoin needs a weekly close above $83,000 Rather than relying on an intraday move, CryptoQuant uses the 365-day moving average as a long-term dividing line between improving and weakening market conditions. A weekly close above roughly $83,000 would place Bitcoin back above that level and confirm the firm’s bull-market signal. Until then, the analytics provider views the current move as an early-stage recovery that still needs price confirmation. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger identified a similar resistance area. He pointed to Bitcoin’s May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next major price level, putting the previous peak close to CryptoQuant’s 365-day average. “A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high,” Kruger noted in a recent statement. Bitcoin’s 2025 record stands well above its current price, leaving the $82,820 to $83,000 area as the first test before traders can assess Kruger’s higher targets. A brief move through the zone would not meet CryptoQuant’s condition unless BTC remains above the moving average through the weekly close. An Aug. 24 analysis of the rally identified $77,000 to $80,000 as the immediate holding area after Bitcoin’s strongest weekly advance since March 2023. Analysts cited in the report said a loss of that range could put $70,000 back in focus, while a sustained breakout could open a move toward $80,000 to $90,000. Spot and futures demand have risen together Supporting the Bull Score increase, CryptoQuant said spot and futures demand are growing at the same time for the first time since early October 2025. Spot demand matters because it involves purchases of Bitcoin itself, while futures activity can include leveraged positions that traders may close quickly. Growth across both markets suggests that the rally has drawn participation from cash buyers alongside derivatives traders, according to the analytics firm. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided an identifiable source of cash-market demand. The funds recorded about $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week ending Aug. 21, their strongest weekly intake since October 2025 and their fifth consecutive positive session. A previous report on ETF demand showed that the funds received approximately $517 million on Aug. 19 and another $606 million on Aug. 20. Bitcoin moved through $70,000 and $75,000 during the same period, although the concurrent moves do not by themselves prove that ETF purchases caused the full price increase. Fresh U.S. demand continued after the weekly streak. According to SoSoValue data cited in an Aug. 25 Bitcoin market update, spot ETFs attracted $337.56 million on Aug. 24. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led with $208.9 million, followed by $104.6 million for Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund. ETF flows give American investors direct exposure to Bitcoin through regulated, exchange-listed products without requiring them to hold the cryptocurrency in a private wallet. The next completed daily readings may show whether fund investors continued buying after BTC slipped back below $80,000. Whale profits raise the risk of a pullback Although its long-term indicators have improved, CryptoQuant warned that several short-term measures show the rally may have become overheated. Traders’ unrealized profit margin rose to 20.5%, the highest reading since June 2025. The metric estimates the paper gains held by market participants and can indicate increased selling pressure when profits rise quickly. CryptoQuant compared the latest reading with early May, when the margin reached 19% as Bitcoin traded near $82,000. BTC subsequently fell by about 30%, according to the firm, although a similar reading does not guarantee that the same decline will happen again. Large short-term holders have already converted part of their paper gains into realized profits. Between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, short-term holder whales booked about $1.2 billion while Bitcoin traded around $78,000 to $79,000, the report said. Selling activity peaked on Aug. 20, when the group realized a record $614 million in profits. CryptoQuant classifies the activity as whale profit-taking because it came from large holders whose coins had been held for a relatively short period. Exchange inflows rose alongside the realized gains. Around 53,000 BTC moved onto trading platforms, the largest deposit total since June, according to the analytics firm. Coins sent to exchanges are not necessarily sold, as holders may transfer Bitcoin for custody, collateral, or trading purposes. CryptoQuant nevertheless treats rising deposits as a potential source of sell-side supply because the assets become easier to trade once they reach an exchange.
