Bernstein has projected Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to reach $586 million in 2026, up from $150 million in 2025, as World Cup trading activity has pushed daily market volumes as high as $4.8 billion. Summary Bernstein expects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to rise from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026 as World Cup trading activity accelerates. Daily prediction market volume reached $4.8 billion during the FIFA World Cup, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during last season’s Super Bowl. Robinhood partner Rothera has processed about 200 million contracts since launch, while new products from Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded competition across the sector. According to a Monday client note from research and brokerage firm Bernstein, prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue-generating product since launch, supported by a surge in trading tied to the FIFA World Cup. The firm said daily prediction market volume climbed from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. faced Paraguay. Bernstein noted that those figures already exceed the $1.4 billion traded during last season’s Super Bowl, one of the sector’s biggest events. Based on its estimates, Robinhood’s prediction market business could contribute about 17% of transaction-based revenue and 10% of total company revenue in 2026. World Cup activity drives prediction market growth In its analysis, Bernstein pointed to Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, as a major advantage. Since launching on May 28, Rothera has processed about 200 million contracts over its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and Major League Baseball contracts accounting for nearly all trading activity. Bernstein said Robinhood’s distribution network gives it a competitive position in the sector. The firm cited the company’s large retail user base, a $0.01 commission per contract, and fee discounts of up to 50% for Gold subscribers. Competition has also expanded as more firms introduce new contract categories. Bernstein highlighted Polymarket’s recent rollout of private company event contracts and Kalshi’s launch of CFTC-regulated perpetual futures tied to major cryptocurrencies. According to the firm, Kalshi’s crypto futures products generated $1 billion in trading volume within a week of launch. Growing interest in private market exposure has coincided with activity elsewhere in the financial and crypto sectors. Earlier this month, Robinhood chief executive Vlad Tenev said Robinhood Securities received approval to act as an underwriter, allowing the company to participate directly in bringing firms public rather than only distributing IPO shares. At the same time, crypto trading platforms have expanded products linked to private companies before they reach public markets. A report published by Talos and Coin Metrics last week said pre-IPO perpetual futures are increasingly being used as price discovery tools ahead of public listings. The report cited billions of dollars in trading volume tied to SpaceX-related contracts on Hyperliquid and said Cerebras Systems contracts traded within about 1% of the stock’s eventual opening price after listing. Bernstein previously identified Robinhood, DraftKings and Coinbase as public companies positioned to benefit from rising prediction market participation during the World Cup. The firm estimates the tournament could generate more than $3 billion in additional handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in extra consumer trading volume across the sector.
