An analyst warns Bitcoin could revisit ~$38k if past 70% drawdown patterns repeat, while others argue deeper institutional flows may cap the correction nearer 55%–60%. Summary Analyst “Sherlock” maps past drawdowns of 93%, 86%, 84%, and 77% to project a roughly 70% drop this cycle, implying a Bitcoin bottom near $38,000. Critics on X counter that prior top‑to‑bottom moves versus bottom‑to‑top rallies suggest a shallower 55%–60% correction, arguing institutions could soften the downside. Sherlock replies that reflexivity can cut both ways, warning traders that trying to time a perfect bottom is risky as Bitcoin trades back to October 2024 levels. Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade under bearish pressure as analysts debate the potential depth of the current correction, with one market observer projecting the cryptocurrency could fall to $38,000 based on historical drawdown patterns. Bitcoin could fall to the $38k range: analyst The cryptocurrency has broken below key support levels and extended its decline as part of a corrective phase that began after Bitcoin reached its peak in October 2025, according to market data. Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern:2011: -93%2015: -86%2018: -84%2022: -77%Every cycle, the drawdown gets smaller as the market matures.Following this trend, the 2026 bottom should be around -70% from the $126K ATH. That puts us at $38K.Good luck…— Sherlock | DeFi Researcher (@Sherlockwhale) February 5, 2026 A crypto analyst known as Sherlock posted an analysis on social media platform X examining Bitcoin’s historical bear market drawdowns and their progression over time. The analysis noted that Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle experienced a drawdown of approximately 93% from peak to trough, representing the largest correction in the asset’s history to date. Subsequent bear markets showed progressively smaller declines, according to the data cited. The 2015 cycle saw a drawdown of about 86%, followed by 84% in 2018 and approximately 77% during the 2022 bear market. The analyst projected that if this pattern continues, the current cycle could see a drawdown of around 70% from the all-time high, which would place Bitcoin’s bottom near $38,000. The projection generated significant engagement on X, with some market participants suggesting that increased institutional involvement and market reflexivity could limit downside risk. One response argued that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, the next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60% rather than 70%. Sherlock responded that reflexivity can amplify downside moves as well as rallies, cautioning traders against attempting to time purchases at specific bottom targets. Bitcoin was trading at levels not seen since October 2024, according to data from CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency last traded around current price levels in October 2023, during the early stages of the previous bull market. The asset has rebounded from an intraday low but remains under pressure as market participants assess whether the corrective phase has concluded.
