Crypto prices today are showing early signs of stabilization as the prolonged U.S. government shutdown comes to an end. Summary Crypto markets may recover after the 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended, though extreme fear still dominates sentiment. Liquidity and institutional flows were heavily disrupted during the shutdown. Temporary budget may ease near-term pressures, but persistent inflation could continue to weigh on crypto. The total crypto market capitalization has fallen 0.6% over the past 24 hours but is edging higher. At press time, Bitcoin was down 1.4% to $101,843, Ethereum rose 0.5% to $3,465, XRP gained 2.8% to $2.46, and Solana fell 0.7% to $153. Investor sentiment remains cautious. Extreme fear is indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which fell nine points to 15, its lowest level since April. CoinGlass data shows that 24-hour liquidations rose 26% to $569 million while total open interest dropped 0.6% to $142 billion. With an average relative strength index of 45, the crypto market may consolidate before making a significant move. Temporary relief from the U.S. shutdown On Nov. 12, the 43-day U.S. government shutdown came to an end after President Trump signed a temporary budget. The bill was approved by the House earlier in the day, reopening federal agencies and resuming the flow of economic data. By lowering uncertainty and enabling markets to regain some stability, this move might offer short-term respite. Liquidity had been severely disrupted by the shutdown, which started on Oct. 1. Treasury repo rates rose 18–22 basis points as banks hoarded cash while federal agencies were closed. Additionally, the lack of important economic data increased market uncertainty. Due to the postponement of the October CPI, PPI, retail sales, and nonfarm payroll reports, the Federal Reserve was placed in a “data-dependent” hold. Markets cut the odds of a December rate cut from 92% to 58% in just a few weeks. Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility spiked to 78%, the highest since the FTX collapse, making every headline a potential trigger for market swings. Moreover, institutional flows stalled. New ETF approvals were delayed due to Securities and Exchange Commission staff furloughs, and risk appetite sharply declined. The correlation between cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq increased to 0.88, and institutions decreased their exposure as stocks wavered. Lingering macro and market pressures Despite the shutdown resolution, market and macro pressures remain. Momentum is still being slowed by recent liquidity shortages and waning interest in industries like tokenization and real-world assets. Stablecoins have stayed steady while other sectors, like AI and meme tokens, have seen sharp drops. Bearish sentiment has also kept markets quiet, and open interest is still 20% below recent highs. The next funding deadline is Jan. 30, 2026, so the temporary budget only offers a temporary solution. According to analysts, long-term initiatives and pro-crypto laws might boost confidence, but short-term volatility is probably going to continue.
